A risk prediction model for incident heart failure (RiskHF): validation cohort study

Heart failure affects around one million people in the UK. Patients experience unpleasant
symptoms, like breathlessness, exhaustion and ankle swelling, and their life may be shortened.
However, with the right treatment, symptoms can be controlled, and outlook improved, so getting
a diagnosis is key. Currently, four out of every five people are admitted to hospital as an
emergency to get a heart failure diagnosis. It would be better for patients and the NHS to
diagnose and treat these people earlier in the community and avoid hospital admission.
In this project, we want to create a model which will predict which patients are most likely to
develop heart failure in the next 12 months. We will use a database of anonymous GP records to
look at which patient characteristics, such as age, blood pressure or previous heart attack, are
more common in people who develop heart failure. We will then build the model and test it in a
different database to see if we can predict the people who get heart failure. If it works well, the
tool could help GPs to identify the patients most likely to develop heart failure so they can test,
diagnose, and treat them earlier.

Primary care data - We are conducting an open retrospective cohort study to derive and validate a risk prediction tool for incident heart failure. The derivation phase of the study will be carried out in CPRD and the validation phase will be in QResearch. The aim is to identify patients at high risk of heart failure from primary care records, to allow earlier diagnosis and treatment. General practice data will be used for predictor variables and the primary outcome (new diagnosis of heart failure).

Hospital Episodes Statistics (HES) Admitted Patients - A new diagnosis of heart failure in primary care, hospital setting or on the death certificate is the primary outcome.

Civil Registration (Mortality) data - Heart failure may in some circumstances lead immediately to death, so we will include heart failure as a cause of death in the primary outcome of new heart failure diagnosis.

Prof Clare Taylor; Dr Maria Vazquez